US: Macro Since March FOMC - Inflation: Another Core CPI Beat (1/3)

(The following is an excerpt from the MNI Fed Preview - full note here:
https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/62377/FedPrevMay2024%20-%20Updated%20With
%20Analysts.pdf - although part two is updated for last week's PCE data)

* Two-year Treasury yields pushed higher to just about clear 4.75% at the close

  after the March payrolls report but it was CPI just a few days later that
  launched them to ultimately test the 5% handle along with multiple analyst
  view changes.

* Core CPI inflation was again stronger than expected in March at 0.36% M/M

  (cons 0.3), ramping up concern that January's, and less so February's, uptick
  was largely down to seasonal factors.

* This continuation of upside surprises saw the three-month run rate accelerate

  to 4.5% annualized, its highest since May'23, whilst the six-month at 3.9%
  saw a second month above the Y/Y in an indication of sustained recent upward
  momentum.

* What's more, "supercore" inflation surged 0.65% M/M for a huge 8.2%
annualized over three months, adding to fears of persistence in services
inflation.