US: Macro Since March FOMC - Labor: ... But Also Strong Supply (2/3)

* However, the unemployment rate was as expected after a bounce in household
employment only just exceeded very strong labor force growth.
* Specifically, household employment surged 498k after three heavy monthly

  declines, whilst the labor force increased +469k after +150k in another sign
  of strong labor supply.

* It meant the unemployment rate came in at 3.83% (cons median 3.8 but average

  3.83) and mostly consolidated its surprise 0.2pps increase to 3.86% back in
  Feb. Whilst we were surprised by the strength of payrolls growth, this pause
  in the unemployment rate was in line with our view.

* However, with the FOMC's median participant forecasting only a small rise in

  the unemployment rate to 4.0% for 4Q24, and with relatively little change
  thereafter, any upward surprises in the unemployment rate over the next
  couple months could still generate a notably dovish market reaction. This is

of note after the recent sharp move lower in NFIB hiring plans.