FED: No Rush To Cuts For Tuesday's FOMC Speakers

Tuesday's busy slate of FOMC commentary reinforced a theme from last week's
meeting: despite the more encouraging inflation data of late, policymakers are
not in a rush to cut rates. Some of the key comments from FOMC participants who
were speaking on monetary policy for the first time since the pre-June media
blackout:

* Boston Fed President Collins noted in a speech that while April-May inflation

  data is "promising", "it is too soon to determine whether inflation is
  durably on a path back to the 2 percent target....we should not overreact to
  a month or two of promising news, just as it was not appropriate to take too
  much signal from the disappointing data at the beginning of this year....the
  appropriate approach to monetary policy continues to require patience,
  providing time for a methodical and holistic assessment of the evolving
  constellation of available data."

* Richmond Fed President Barkin told an MNI Webcast that while the US economy

  was "clearly on the back side of inflation," with May's inflation data "very
  encouraging", he can envisage multiple scenarios for monetary policy
  depending on how the data evolves and "we will learn a lot more over the next
  several months".

* NY Fed President Williams likewise was non-committal on rate cuts, saying he

  wouldn't make a "prediction" about the path of policy, as it "depends on how
  the data evolves...I do see a disinflationary process continuing and I expect
  inflation to keep coming down the second half of this year and next year."

* Fed Governor Kugler: While "I was encouraged by some of the details of the

  recent reports", "inflation is still too high, and further progress is likely
  to be gradual". But "I am optimistic about further progress...if the economy
  evolves as I am expecting, it will likely become appropriate to begin easing
  policy sometime later this year" but "as always, my judgment will be guided
  by the data."

* Dallas Fed Pres Logan eyes "several months" of data before having the

  confidence to cut: "we're in a flexible position to watch the data and be
  patient...we're going to need to see several months of that data to really
  have confidence in our outlook that we're headed to 2%."

* St Louis Fed President Musalem provided arguably the most hawkish perspective

  today, speaking of "quarters" rather than "months": "I will need to observe a
  period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before
  becoming confident that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds
  rate is appropriate. These conditions could take months, and more likely

quarters to play out."