US TSYS: Focus Turns to May 1 FOMC Minutes

* Treasuries rebounded from Monday's losses Tuesday, taking the dovish side of

  two-way comments from Fed Gov Waller. Decent corporate debt issuance climbed
  over $12B, rate lock hedging helped constrain short cover/position squaring
  support.

* Recent U.S. economic data indicate high interest rates are helping to cool

  off demand and disinflation has likely resumed, but the Federal Reserve needs
  to see several more months of good inflation data before cutting rates,
  Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday.

* Rate cut projections hold steady vs. late Monday: June 2024 at -5% w/

  cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp
  at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.9bp, Nov'24 cumulative -27.6bp, Dec'24
  -43.7bp.

* Look ahead to Wednesday: May 1 FOMC Minutes, Existing Home Sales and US Tsy
20Y Bond Sale.
* The message from Chair Powell and other members since the May meeting has
been a fairly emphatic "high for longer", with policy currently seen as
restrictive but needing further time to work to bring inflation down.