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Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: EUR 20.90
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

9 months 2023: Three more companies acquired in 2023; High revenue and
earnings growth achieved; Slight forecast and price target adjustment;
Rating: BUY
 
In the third quarter of 2023, CENIT AG achieved sales growth of 9.3% to EUR
45.84 million (Q3 2022: EUR 41.95 million), thus seamlessly continuing the
previous development of the current business year 2023. In the first two
quarters, an increase in turnover of 22.7% (Q1) and 14.4% (Q2) was
achieved. In total, sales revenues of EUR 133.31 million (previous year: EUR
115.86 million) were achieved in the first nine months, which corresponds
to an increase of 15.1% compared to the previous year. A major growth
driver was the continuation of inorganic growth, which was advanced in the
current financial year by the acquisitions of mip Management Informations
Partner GmbH, PI Informatik GmbH and ACTIVE BUSINESS CONSULT. ISR
Informations Products AG was already acquired in the previous financial
year 2022, which was only consolidated from 31 May 2022, so that there is
also a base effect here. Overall, the inorganic contribution to growth is
likely to have been around 14.00 million euros according to our
calculations, which means organic growth in turnover of around 3.0%.
 
The strong sales growth of 9.3% was accompanied by a disproportionate
increase in EBIT of 78.1% to EUR 4.60 million (previous year: EUR 2.58
million). Although the EBIT was positively influenced by a one-time gain of
EUR 0.87 million from the sale of the subsidiary CENIT Japan K.K., the
company would have achieved an EBIT increase of 44.6 % to EUR 3.73 million
even without this effect. On the one hand, the higher EBIT margin of the
acquired companies is likely to have had a positive effect. On the other
hand, the Sirius cost-cutting programme that has been introduced is also
likely to have made a positive contribution to earnings.
 
CENIT AG plans to continue the high M&A activity of the last quarters. In
this context, the company has restructured its bank liabilities and taken
out a new loan of EUR 40.00 million. With this loan, the existing loan of EUR
22.66 million was repaid. Since the acquisitions of the current financial
year were financed from the operating cash flow, the borrowing less the
dividend distribution (EUR 4.18 million) and the repayment of leasing
liabilities (EUR 2.83 million) led to an increase in liquid funds to EUR 30.07
million (31.12.22: EUR 19.91 million). The company thus has sufficient
financial leeway to opportunistically acquire further companies.
 
With the publication of the nine-month figures, CENIT's management has
confirmed the forecast for the current business year. Sales of around EUR 180
million and an EBIT of around EUR 9.5 million are still expected. Based on
the figures achieved in the first nine months, sales of around EUR 46.70
million and an EBIT of around EUR 4.90 million are expected for the fourth
quarter. While turnover is expected to remain at about the same level as in
the fourth quarter of the previous year, EBIT should improve significantly
compared to the same period of the previous year.
 
An increase in EBIT in the fourth quarter should be primarily related to an
expected rise in high-margin proprietary software sales. According to the
company, there were postponements of orders, which could, however, still be
realised in the current financial year. The affected order volume amounts
to approximately EUR 1.5 million. In addition, the positive effect from the
deconsolidation of the Japanese subsidiary should also make a slightly
positive EBIT contribution in the fourth quarter. In addition, the savings
effects from the Sirius programme should also increase earnings.
 
While we are keeping our revenue forecast unchanged, we are adjusting our
EBIT estimate slightly to EUR 9.55 million (previously: EUR 9.80 million).
However, we are taking into account the new loan of EUR 40 million in our
estimates for the first time, which will lead to higher interest expenses.
In particular, this leads to an adjustment of our estimated after-tax
results for the financial years 2024 and 2025, while we leave both the
revenue and earnings estimates for these estimation periods unchanged.
Although the funds raised are to be used for the implementation of further
M&A activities, we have not yet included them in our forecasts because they
have yet to be realised. According to company information, an acquisition
is very likely in 2023. In addition, there is currently an extensive M&A
pipeline which, if fully realised, would increase turnover by around EUR 70
million.
 
Due to the slight adjustment of the EBIT for 2023 as well as the
consideration of higher interest expenses in connection with the extensive
borrowing, our price target determined within the framework of the DCF
model is only slightly reduced to EUR 20.90 (previously: EUR 21.00). We
continue to assign the BUY rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28005.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) of completion: 03/11/23 (09:18 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 03/11/23 (10:30 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
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Quelle: dpa-AFX