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Original-Research: creditshelf AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu creditshelf AG

Unternehmen: creditshelf AG
ISIN: DE000A2LQUA5

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 13.11.2023
Kursziel: EUR 4,10
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Weak Q3 // No sales without refinancing; chg

Topic: Last week, creditshelf announced Q3 figures that came in as weak as
anticipated as the refinancing issue remained unsolved. In detail:

Sales stand at EUR 0.7m (-43% yoy; -50% qoq), in line with prelims, published
already last week. While brokered volume of only EUR 7.5m (-75% yoy, -65%
qoq) literally fell of the cliff and came in even lower than already
reflected in our reduced estimates (eNuW: EUR 11m), margins on the borrower
side slightly increased to 4.6% (vs 3.3% in Q3Ž22 vs 4.0% in Q2), but do no
change the overall picture. Revenues from service and advisory fees to the
tune of EUR 0.5m partially compensated for the absence of significant
commissions from loan brokerage (EUR 0.3m, -66% yoy).

EBIT came in at EUR -0.1m (vs EUR -0.9m in Q3Ž22 vs EUR -0.4m in Q2) better than
expected (eNuW: EUR -0.2m). Importantly, the lower topline, mostly equalized
by other operating revenues (EUR 1.2m) stemming from a debt waiver by the
companyŽs patron, the reversal of provisions for virtual participation
shares and refunds of legal costs.

The weak Q3 results are fully due to the still unsolved refinancing issue
that prevent creditshelf from serving the high demand for alternative
funding. Consequently, management has reduced its sales guidance for FY23
already a week earlier to EUR 4.0-5.0m sales, while the EBIT guidance of EUR
-2m to EUR -1m remained untouched. Assuming that the financing issue last at
least until year end, our estimates of EUR 4.2m are at the lower end of the
rather unspecific guidance range.

While we still believe that 1) brokered volumes should lift-off as soon as
the funding issue is solved (demand for SME loans was 25x higher than
supply in H1) and 2) creditshelf is still good address for German SMEŽs, we
do not expect the company to survive another year without new refinancing
sources, as Obotritia is either not able or not willing to pay the junior
tranche that would unlock the senior tranche of Goldman Sachs (c. EUR 100m).

In order to reflect 1) the very weak Q3 and the clouded outlook without a
quick solution on the funding side on the one hand and 2) the potential of
the company that should materialize as soon as the refinancing issue is
solved on the other hand, we reiterate HOLD with a slightly reduced PT of EUR
4.1, based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28231.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Quelle: dpa-AFX