AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper With US Tsys Post-FOMC, Risk-On After Nvidia Beat

ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -4.5) are weaker after cash US tsys finished 2-3bps cheaper
following the release of the October Meeting FOMC Minutes.

* Wall Street rebounded ahead of Nvidia's earnings but finished below its early

  highs. After the close, US equity futures moved higher after Nvidia reported
  results that topped expectations.

* The improvement in risk appetite weighed on US tsys, as did expectations that
the FOMC will hold off on a December rate cut.
* While opinions "differed strongly", the minutes suggest that it may only be a
minority of the Committee that is pushing for a follow-up cut.
* That was largely in line with MNI's view that a majority of the broader

  Committee may be leaning to a December hold based on post-October FOMC
  commentary.

* Cash ACGBs are 5bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at
+33bps. (see chart)
* The bills strip is -2 to -5 across contracts, with a flattening bias.
* RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in December at a 2%
probability, with a cumulative 11bps of easing priced by mid-2026.
* Today, the local calendar will see RBA's Sarah Hunter speak at the Australia
Industry Group.
* The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 1.25% 21 May 2032 bond on Friday.

Bloomberg Finance LP