08.07.2024 14:48:56 - dpa-AFX: MARKET ANALYSIS: Looming Inflation Data, Powell Testimony May Lead To Choppy Trading On Wall Street

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing
to a roughly flat open on Monday, with stocks likely to show a lack of direction
after turning in a strong performance last week.

Traders may be reluctant to make significant moves ahead of several key economic
events this week that could have a significant impact on the outlook for
interest rates.

While the economic calendar gets off to a slow start today, reports on consumer
and producer prices in June will be in the spotlight in the coming days.

The Labor Department's report on consumer prices is expected to show a slowdown
in the pace of annual price growth, which could bolster optimism about a rate
cut in September.

Traders are also likely to pay close attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell's congressional testimony this week, looking for clues about the interest
rate outlook.

Stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Friday, with
the major averages all moving to the upside after turning in a mixed performance
early in the session. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed higher for the fourth
straight session, once again reaching new record closing highs.

The major averages reached new highs for the session going into the close of
trading. The Nasdaq jumped 164.46 points or 0.9 percent to 18,352.76, the S&P
500 climbed 30.17 points or 0.5 percent to 5,567.19 and the Dow rose 67.87
points or 0.2 percent to 39,375.87.

For the holiday-interrupted week, the Nasdaq spiked by 3.5 percent, the S&P 500
surged by 2.0 percent and the Dow advanced by 0.7 percent.

The strength on Wall Street came as the Labor Department's closely watched
monthly employment report for June generated optimism about the outlook for
interest rates.

While employment jumped by more than expected in June, the report also showed
downward revisions to job growth in April and May as well as another unexpected
uptick by the unemployment rate.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment shot up by 206,000 jobs in
June compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 190,000 jobs.

However, the report also showed the increases in employment in April and May
were downwardly revised to 108,000 jobs and 218,000 jobs, respectively,
reflecting a net downward revision of 111,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate also rose for the third straight month, inching up to 4.1
percent in June from 4.0 percent in May. Economists had expected the
unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

With the unexpected uptick, the unemployment rate reached its highest level
since hitting a matching rate in November 2021.

Treasury yields moved lower following the release of the report amid optimism
the continued increase by the unemployment rate will convince the Federal
Reserve to lower interest rates in the near future.

'On net, the job market looks considerably cooler in the June report than in
May, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% is above where the median Fed policymaker
projected it at year-end when they compiled economic projections last month,'
said Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.

'From the Fed's perspective, the labor market isn't soft enough justify an
interest rate cut at this month's meeting,' he added. 'But the labor market's
cooling trend is quite clear. If inflation holds in its recent range, the Fed is
likely to make an initial rate cut at the following decision, in September.'

Nonetheless, overall trading activity was somewhat subdued on the day, as some
traders remained away from their desks following the Independence Day holiday on
Thursday.

Gold stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, resulting in a
2.6 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The strength among gold
stocks came as the price of the precious metal climbed to its highest levels in
a month.

Significant strength also emerged among software stocks, as reflected by the 1.4
percent gain posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index.

Pharmaceutical and retail stocks also showed notable moves to the upside, with
the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index climbing
by 1.3 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, airline stocks showed a substantial move to the downside,
dragging the NYSE Arca Airline Index down by 2.5 percent.

A decrease by the price of crude oil also weighed on energy stocks, while
banking and steel stocks also saw notable weakness on the day.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are slipping $0.53 to $82.63 a barrel after falling $0.72 to
$83.16 a barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, after surging $28.30 to $2,397.70 an
ounce in the previous session, gold futures are sliding $14.90 to $2,382.80 an
ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 160.77 yen versus the
160.75 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the
euro, the dollar is trading at $1.0839 compared to last Friday's $1.0840.

Asia

Asian stocks declined on Monday, while the euro rose against the dollar as
French elections resulted in unprecedented political uncertainty.

A leftist alliance emerged as the surprise winner of the legislative elections,
leading to a fragmented parliament with three major groups - left, centre and
far right.

Meanwhile, after last week's U.S. jobs data, investors looked ahead to the
release of U.S. and Chinese inflation figures as well as Fed Chair Jerome
Powell's testimony due this week for additional clues on the Fed's monetary
policy path.

Oil and gold prices traded lower in Asian trading, while the dollar lingered
near three-week lows.

China's Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.9 percent to 2,922.45 as investors
braced for one of the country's biggest annual policy meetings.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped 1.6 percent to 17,524.06 ahead of Chinese
inflation data for June due on Wednesday.

Japanese markets retreated from record highs in choppy trading as data showed
real wages in the country fell for a 26th straight month.

The Nikkei 225 Index hit a record high of 41,112.24 before reversing course to
end the session down 0.3 percent at 40,780.70. The broader Topix Index closed
0.6 percent lower at 2867.61.

Heavyweights SoftBank and Fast Retailing both ended around half a percent
higher, while electrical equipment maker Yaskawa Electric plunged 4.4 percent to
lead losses.

Seoul stocks ended slightly lower in volatile trade, with the Kospi dipping 0.2
percent to 2,857.76 ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional
testimony and the release of U.S. CPI data for June later in the week. The Bank
of Korea's rate-setting meeting on Thursday was also on investors' radar.

Samsung Biologics fell 1.4 percent, while market bellwether Samsung Electronics
edges up 0.3 percent and top automaker Hyundai Motor rose 0.7 percent.

Australian markets fell notably, with miners underperforming as iron prices
slumped on concerns over Chinese demand and oversupply.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.8 percent to 7,763.20, while the
broader All Ordinaries Index ended down 0.7 percent at 8,012.20.

BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group lost 2-3 percent. Rex Minerals jumped
56.4 percent after receiving a takeover bid from MACH Metals Australia.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX-50 Index fell 0.4 percent to
11,745.53 ahead of Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy review on
Wednesday.

Europe

European stocks have eked out modest gains on Monday after a left-wing alliance
won the most seats in the French parliament, thwarting the far right in a
stunning result to Sunday's second-round vote.

However, no single political faction got even close to the majority needed to
form a government, creating political mayhem that has undermined the president's
power and shaken the foundations of the European Union's second-largest economy.

In economic news, German exports declined for the first time in three months in
May, as demand from China and the United States weakened, data published by
Destatis showed today.

Exports posted a monthly fall of 3.6 percent, in contrast to the 1.7 percent
increase in April. At the same time, imports declined more deeply by 6.6
percent, reversing a 1.2 percent rise in April.

While the German DAX Index is up by 0.3 percent, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index is up
by 0.2 percent and the French CAC 40 Index is just above the unchanged line.

Britvic has jumped after Danish brewer Carlsberg agreed to acquire the British
soft drinks maker for 3.3 billion pounds ($4.23 billion). Shares of the latter
have also rallied.

Marston's has also surged after the pub and hotel operator disposed of its 40
percent stake in its brewing joint venture with Carlsberg.

HgCapital Trust has also moved to the upside. The private equity trust has
agreed to sell its remaining investment in business software company TeamSystem.

Meanwhile, Delivery Hero shares have slumped. The German online food takeaway
firm said it may face a fine above 400 million euros from Brussels due to
antitrust violations.

U.S. Economic News

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its report on consumer credit in the
month of May at 3 pm ET. Economists expect consumer credit to increase by $10.0
billion in May after rising by $6.4 billion in April.

Stocks In Focus

Shares of Morphic Holding (MORF) have skyrocketed in pre-market trading after
the biopharmaceutical company agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly (LLY) for $3.2
billion.

Solar energy company SolarEdge (SEDG) is also likely to move to the upside after
Bank of America upgraded its rating on the company's stock to Neutral from
Underperform.

On the other hand, shares of ServiceNow (NOW) may see initial weakness after
Guggenheim downgraded its rating on the cloud computing company to Sell from
Neutral.



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Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX
Name WKN Börse Kurs Datum/Zeit Diff. Diff. % Geld Brief Erster Schluss
Dow Jones Industrial Average ( 969420 DOW JONES Indizes 40.281,81 19.07.24 21:38:01 -383,21 -0,94% 40.275,24 40.287,14 40.592,35 40.665,02
NASDAQ COMP. 969427 NASDAQ Indizes 17.756,01 19.07.24 21:33:54 -115,21 -0,64% - - 17.835,59 17.871,22

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