US TSYS: Weaker But Off Lows, Little React to May 1 FOMC Minutes
* Treasuries drifting near midrange for the day after the bell, not a major
reaction to the May 1 FOMC minutes.
* Tsys largely mirrored moves in EGBs during overlapping hours - trading weaker
after higher than expected inflation data via UK CPI overnight. Treasury
futures climbed off early session lows to late morning session highs, in-line
with a recovery in Gilts.
* Little react to Existing home sales miss in April at 4.14m (cons 4.23m) after
an upward revised 4.22m in March (initial 4.19m). The latest profile leaves
sales -1.9% M/M in April after a smaller than first thought decline of -3.7%
M/M in March, still retracing the surprise 9.5% jump in Feb.
* Main focus was on the FOMC minutes: "Participants noted disappointing
readings on inflation over the first quarter and indicators pointing to
strong economic momentum, and assessed that it would take longer than
previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was
moving sustainably toward 2%," the minutes said. Some officials also appeared
willing to contemplate interest rate increases if conditions appear to
worsen.
* Rate cut projections are slightly lower vs. late Tuesday levels (*): June
2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut 0bp at 5.323%, July'24 at -16.0% (-20%) w/
cumulative at -5.2 (-6.3bp) at 5.283%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.8bp (-19.9bp),
Nov'24 cumulative -25.6bp (-27.6bp), Dec'24 -40bp (-43.7bp).