STIR: Modest Dovish Move In FOMC Pricing Post-PCE

Slightly softer-than-expected unrounded core PCE M/M data provides a limited
dovish market reaction in FOMC-dated OIS.

* That leaves -2.5bp of cuts priced through the July meeting, -18bp showing

  through Sep, -26.5bp through Nov and -44bp of total cuts priced through year
  end. Dec FOMC-dated OIS showed -42bp of cuts ahead of the data.

* Multi-week ranges remain intact.
* A positive upward revision to the prior month's core PCE M/M reading was

  exaggerated by rounding, accounting for some of the initial two-way post-data
  flow in U.S. rates.

* Fed's Daly ('24 voter) was not market moving, as she reiterated previous
comments, while noting that today's PCE data provides evidence that policy
settings are working.