Aperam update on Q2 2024 market & financial trends

   Aperam S.A. / Key word(s): Miscellaneous
   Aperam update on Q2 2024 market & financial trends
   01-Jul-2024 / 06:59 CET/CEST
     ____________________________________________________________

   
   Aperam update on Q2 2024 market & financial trends

   Luxembourg, July 1, 2024 (07:00 CET) - In preparation of the
   quarterly results release scheduled for 1 August 2024, we would
   like to remind market participants of the standing guidance,
   earnings drivers and events that should be considered.

   The Q2 outlook, as specified in the Q1 presentation, the
   management podcast and during the conference call was:
     * Q2 group adj. EBITDA higher than Q1-24 (EUR55m) but below
       Bloomberg consensus at the time of the earnings release on 3
       May 2024. This was based on slightly higher volumes, the
       segment trends stated in the table below and stable commodity
       prices resulting in a neutral inventory valuation.
     * This compares to the Aperam compiled Q2 adj. EBITDA consensus
       at EUR73m currently. The consensus is updated & published at
       https://www.aperam.com/investors/news-contacts/results/

Recycling & Renewables:

   Normalised annual EBITDA of EUR80-85m. We projected Q2 to be a
   normal quarter for the segment.

Stainless & Electrical Europe

   For Q2 we projected the segment to benefit from a neutral
   inventory valuation and a seasonal volume improvement in Europe.
   This will be partly offset by a price / cost squeeze in Europe.

Stainless & Electrical Brazil

   The delayed ramp-up of the hot rolling mill was followed by
   operational instability. This will fully impact Q2 with -EUR10m.

Alloys & Specialties:

   For Q2 we expected a somewhat lower EBITDA in line with Q4-23
   after completion of a one off project.

Services & Solutions:

   Assuming no further distortion from raw material prices, we
   expected a comparable EBITDA in Q2 and the year should
   demonstrate a clear step towards the 2025 improvement target.

Others & Eliminations

   Q1 was consistent with the normal high single digit negative
   EBITDA that should be expected. For Q2, it could be a negative
   low double digit number.

Cash Flow & Net Fin. Debt:

NWC: EUR120m release till YE-24 with some release in Q2.

   Capex EUR150m for 2024, Q2 capex lower than Q1 (EUR81m) and
   within the EUR150m capex guidance for 2024.

Q2 net debt: Lower due to the release of net working capital.

   Please note that forward guidance for adj. EBITDA, cash flow and
   net debt is always provided on a stable commodity price
   assumption.

Commodity prices & FX:



MAR 24

APR 24

MAY 24

JUN 24

Nickel LME

USD/t

17,409

18,204

19,605

17,602

Ferrochrome

USD/t

3,483

3,218

3,174

3,163

Stainless Scrap

USD/t

1,478

1,463

1,552

1,538

Stainless CR 2mm 304

USD/t

2,889

2,944

3,040

3,191

USD/EUR

x

1.09

1.07

1.08

1.08

USD/BRL

x

4.98

5.13

5.14

5.38

Source: Bloomberg, Fastmarkets


Other items:


Seasonality:

   In a normal market, Q2 is the seasonal peak in Europe while Q3
   marks the peak quarter in Brazil.

Leadership Journey Phase 5:

On track to realise the target gains of EUR75m in 2024.

Commodity prices & inventory valuation:

   At face value, the commodity price development would indicate a
   positive high single digit / very low double digit inventory
   valuation. It should remain consistent with the EBITDA ceiling
   guided for Q2.

Brazil hot rolling mill:

   The mill is operating normally and no further impact is expected
   post Q2.

Distributor Inventory:

Marked a new post GFC all time low.

Current trading:

   A positive price / volume correlation can be observed more
   recently. However, it remains open if this is the start of a
   sustained recovery or short lived pre-buying ahead of the summer
   holiday season

Restructuring:

Negotiations with our workforce are ongoing.


Forward Looking Statements

   This document may contain forward-looking information and
   statements about Aperam SA and its subsidiaries. These statements
   include financial projections and estimates and their underlying
   assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and
   expectations with respect to future operations, products and
   services, and statements regarding future performance.
   Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words
   ''believe'', ''expect'', ''anticipate'', ''target'' or similar
   expressions. Although Aperam's management believes that the
   expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are
   reasonable, investors and holders of Aperam's securities are
   cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are
   subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are
   difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Aperam,
   that could cause actual results and developments to differ
   materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or
   projected by, the forward-looking information and statements.
   These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or
   identified in Aperam's filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market
   Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance
   du Secteur Financier). The information is valid only at the time
   of release and Aperam does not assume any obligation to update or
   revise its forward-looking statements on the basis of new
   information, future events, subject to applicable regulation.

Contact

   Company Secretary / Delphine Féraud Valendru:
   aperam.corporate@aperam.com

   Investor Relations / Thorsten Zimmermann: +352 27 36 27 304;
   thorsten.zimmermann@aperam.com

____________________________________________________________

   Dissemination of a Financial Wire News, transmitted by EQS Group.
   The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this
   announcement.
     ____________________________________________________________

1936231 01-Jul-2024 CET/CEST