Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Buy from: 11.07.2024 Target price: EUR 1.20 Last rating change: Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

FY23 out // Softer topline but strong EBITDA; chg.

Topic: NAGA recently reported FY23 figures that came with a slight miss on the topline and a positive surprise on the bottom line. A D&A one-off makes EBIT look ugly. In detail:

Sales of EUR 39.7m (NAGA standalone), are below prelims of EUR 45.5m resulting from the lower than anticipated avg. revenue per trade of only EUR 4.3 (vs. eNuW: EUR 4.9) and 9.2m transactions (both NAGA standalone).

EBITDA came in higher than expected at EUR 8.4m (vs. prelims: EUR 7.0m), thanks to significantly lower marketing expenses (EUR 4.6m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.9m), personnel expenses (EUR 6.5m vs eNuW: EUR 7.9m) andR&D costs (EUR 3.4m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.2m) overcompensating for the weaker topline and higher other operating expenses (EUR 9.8m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.9m). EBT of EUR -61m (vs. eNuW: EUR -2.4m), is mainly burdenedone-off amortization to the tune of EUR 57m as a result of the valuation related to the merger with capex.

Looking into 2024, the outlook for the joint Group shines bright: Trading activity of peers that seem to revitalize and cross-selling potentials between NAGA and capex should fuel the number of transactions to15.9m and hence sales to EUR 71.8m, assuming an avg. revenue per trade of EUR 5.0. Synergy effects and ongoing disciplined spending are expected to additionally drive EBITDA to EUR 11.5m. As we do not expect further meaningful amortizations in FY24, EBIT should come in at EUR 1.6m (eNuW).

Going forward, management has ambitious growth plans expecting to generate USD 250m sales with a 40% EBITDA margin until FY26. While we think this is a rather optimistic scenario, the past has already shown that an incremental positive change of the public markets' sentiment could have an enormous effect on the P&L of NAGA. The leverage of the joint Group could even scale this effect. Still, in our base case scenario we conservatively only anticipating EUR 90m in sales and EBITDA of EUR 19m (22% EBITDA margin), leaving room for positive surprises.

Overall, the revitalization of customer activity in the brokerage space, paired with cross-selling and synergy effects arising from the merger should bode well for NAGA. Details of the growth plan should be unveiled during today´s CDM starting at 4pm CEST.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 1.20 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30193.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 11, 2024 03:01 ET (07:01 GMT)